The Paris Agreement in the 2020s:Breakdown or Breakup?

Just four years after the adoption of the Paris Agreement, there are seriouswarning signs that the Agreement could unravel in the 2020s. Not only didPresident Trump’s 2017 withdrawal announcement damage the universality andreciprocity of the Agreement, but many parties are not on track to reach theirown voluntary carbon reduction pledges.

This Article shows how and why the Paris Agreement could falter. I explorethe recent stressors on the Agreement and challenge the dominant scholarlynarrative that I call the “peer pressure proposition”—the view that internationalpeer pressure will encourage parties to ramp up their pledges over time.Highlighting the flawed assumptions of the peer pressure proposition, I providea more nuanced, pragmatic account of the prospects for cooperation under theAgreement in the 2020s.

While no outcome can be predicted with certainty, I argue thatpolicymakers will plausibly face a Breakdown scenario in the next decade, wherethe Paris Agreement lapses into ineffectiveness, or even a Breakup scenario,where the Paris Agreement collapses and parties withdraw or disengage. Eitherscenario would be ecologically devastating, and I explore the implications ofboth scenarios for international law and the climate change regime.