The challenges of uncertainty: an introduction / Francis Fukuyama Thinking about catastrophe / Richard A. Posner Cases: looking back Slow surprise: the dynamics of technology synergy / David Landes U.S. intelligence estimates of Soviet collapse: reality and perception / Bruce Berkowitz Econoshocks: the East Asian crisis case / David Hale Cases: looking ahead The once and future DARPA / William B. Bonvillian Fueled again? In search of energy security / Gal Luft and Anne Korin Emerging infectious diseases: are we prepared? / Scott Barrett Forecasting Ahead of the curve: anticipating strategic surprise / Peter Schwartz and Doug Randall Can scenarios help policymakers be both bold and careful? / Robert Lempert Innovation and adaptation: IT examples / M. Mitchell Waldrop What could be Cassandra vs. Pollyanna : a debate between James Kurth and Gregg Easterbrook Global discontinuities : a discussion with Owen Harries, Itamar Rabinovich, Niall Ferguson, and Scott Barrett American scenarios A discussion with Walter Russell Mead, Eliot Cohen, Ruth Wedgwood, Anne Applebaum, Bernard-Henri Lévy, Josef Joffe, Peter Schwartz, and Francis Fukuyama Afterword / Francis Fukuyama Notes Contributors Index.
"Focuses on developing analytical tools to anticipate and manage low-probability events. Addresses psychological and institutional obstacles preventing planning for low-probability tragedies and allocating necessary resources. Pinpoints failures---institutional and personal---that allowed events to surprise leaders and examines philosophies and methodologies of forecasting. Discusses low-probability, high-impact contingencies in various sectors"--Provided by publisher.
"An American Interest Book."
Bibliography, etc. Note
Includes bibliographical references (pages 173-180) and index.