Blindside : how to anticipate forcing events and wild cards in global politics / Francis Fukuyama, editor.
2007
KF3750 .F85 2007 (Mapit)
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Uniform Title
American interest.
Title
Blindside : how to anticipate forcing events and wild cards in global politics / Francis Fukuyama, editor.
Added Author
Fukuyama, Francis.
Imprint
Washington, D.C. : Brookings Institution Press, [2007]
Copyright
©2007
Description
vi, 198 pages ; 24 cm
Formatted Contents Note
The challenges of uncertainty: an introduction / Francis Fukuyama
Thinking about catastrophe / Richard A. Posner
Cases: looking back
Slow surprise: the dynamics of technology synergy / David Landes
U.S. intelligence estimates of Soviet collapse: reality and perception / Bruce Berkowitz
Econoshocks: the East Asian crisis case / David Hale
Cases: looking ahead
The once and future DARPA / William B. Bonvillian
Fueled again? In search of energy security / Gal Luft and Anne Korin
Emerging infectious diseases: are we prepared? / Scott Barrett
Forecasting
Ahead of the curve: anticipating strategic surprise / Peter Schwartz and Doug Randall
Can scenarios help policymakers be both bold and careful? / Robert Lempert
Innovation and adaptation: IT examples / M. Mitchell Waldrop
What could be
Cassandra vs. Pollyanna : a debate between James Kurth and Gregg Easterbrook
Global discontinuities : a discussion with Owen Harries, Itamar Rabinovich, Niall Ferguson, and Scott Barrett
American scenarios
A discussion with Walter Russell Mead, Eliot Cohen, Ruth Wedgwood, Anne Applebaum, Bernard-Henri Lévy, Josef Joffe, Peter Schwartz, and Francis Fukuyama
Afterword / Francis Fukuyama
Notes
Contributors
Index.
Thinking about catastrophe / Richard A. Posner
Cases: looking back
Slow surprise: the dynamics of technology synergy / David Landes
U.S. intelligence estimates of Soviet collapse: reality and perception / Bruce Berkowitz
Econoshocks: the East Asian crisis case / David Hale
Cases: looking ahead
The once and future DARPA / William B. Bonvillian
Fueled again? In search of energy security / Gal Luft and Anne Korin
Emerging infectious diseases: are we prepared? / Scott Barrett
Forecasting
Ahead of the curve: anticipating strategic surprise / Peter Schwartz and Doug Randall
Can scenarios help policymakers be both bold and careful? / Robert Lempert
Innovation and adaptation: IT examples / M. Mitchell Waldrop
What could be
Cassandra vs. Pollyanna : a debate between James Kurth and Gregg Easterbrook
Global discontinuities : a discussion with Owen Harries, Itamar Rabinovich, Niall Ferguson, and Scott Barrett
American scenarios
A discussion with Walter Russell Mead, Eliot Cohen, Ruth Wedgwood, Anne Applebaum, Bernard-Henri Lévy, Josef Joffe, Peter Schwartz, and Francis Fukuyama
Afterword / Francis Fukuyama
Notes
Contributors
Index.
Summary
"Focuses on developing analytical tools to anticipate and manage low-probability events. Addresses psychological and institutional obstacles preventing planning for low-probability tragedies and allocating necessary resources. Pinpoints failures---institutional and personal---that allowed events to surprise leaders and examines philosophies and methodologies of forecasting. Discusses low-probability, high-impact contingencies in various sectors"--Provided by publisher.
Note
"An American Interest Book."
Bibliography, etc. Note
Includes bibliographical references (pages 173-180) and index.
Location
STA KF3750 .F85 2007
Call Number
KF3750 .F85 2007
Language
English
ISBN
9780815729907 cloth alkaline paper
0815729901 cloth alkaline paper
0815729901 cloth alkaline paper
Record Appears in
Monographs & Serials